"Investing has a lot to do with common sense and personal observations. The man on the street frequently knows far more about the economy than politicians, university professors and financial analysts who seldom travel, or if they do, only from one first class hotel to another first class hotel and from one golf course to another. The pulse and vibrancy of an economy is, however, nowhere more visible than in a country's entertainment venues, such as bars, resturants, nightclubs and shopping centres."
Dr. Marc Farber, http://www.gloomboomdoom.com/